Sources of Debt Accumulation in Resource-Dependent Provinces
DOI :
https://doi.org/10.11575/sppp.v8i0.42524Résumé
Governments in provinces relying on natural resource commodities for significant amounts of revenue face the distinct challenge of unpredictably fluctuating budget circumstances. As politicians routinely point out, much of that challenge is in the volatility of global commodity prices. But a big part of it is actually the policies of the governments themselves. In fact, when effects of commodity prices, economic cycles and fiscal policy are separated from one another, one of the biggest impacts on government debt over the last 30 years in Canada’s four resource-dependent provinces — Alberta, Saskatchewan, British Columbia and Newfoundland and Labrador — has been government policy. While years of booming economies have offset years of busts, virtually all the debt racked up by these provinces over more than three decades has been a combination of movements in commodity prices and political decisions. In Alberta, over three periods since the early 1980s, totalling more than 15 years cumulatively, it was policy — not energy prices or economic factors — that had the biggest impact on government debt levels. From 1988–89 to 1993–94, Progressive Conservative policies were the biggest factor in raising Alberta’s debt, and from 1995–96 to 1999–2000, the Klein government’s policies were the biggest factor in reducing Alberta’s debt. The policies of then premier Ralph Klein also played the biggest role in reducing debt from 2001–02 to 2003–04, while from 2006–07 to 2013–14, the policies of the Stelmach and Redford governments outweighed economic and commodity-price effects in ways that both reduced debt at times, and then raised it again. Over the entire period from 1982–84 to 2013–14, PC government policy increased Alberta’s debt ratio by 9.5 percentage points of GDP, while the business cycle decreased it by only one percentage point, and the commodity-price cycle decreased it by only 1.9 points. In Saskatchewan, the policy component raised the provincial debt ratio by 11.6 percentage points of provincial GDP from 1982–84 to 2013–14. The business cycle added 1.5 points and the commodity-price cycle decreased the debt ratio by 6.1 points. Ironically, given assumptions about party proclivities, it was Progressive Conservative government policies that added most of that debt, and NDP government policies that made the most progress in reducing it. In Newfoundland and Labrador, where a reliance on resource revenue is a more recent phenomenon, the policies of both PC and Liberal governments were almost indistinguishable, together reducing the debt ratio by 9.8 percentage points of GDP from 1982–84 to 2013–14, while the effect of commodity prices reduced it by 16.9 percentage points. But in B.C., government policy was, as in the other western provinces, the biggest factor on the debt ratio: decreasing it by 12.5 percentage points of GDP, compared to the increase of two points caused by economic cycles, and the reduction of 4.9 percentage points caused by commodity prices. Whatever the politicians in resource-dependent provinces say about their unpredictable budgeting challenges, clearly policy can have the biggest impact on debt accumulation. As it happens, that is also the one factor over which those politicians actually have total control.
†
Téléchargements
Publié-e
Numéro
Rubrique
Licence
The following is the copyright statement of SPPP.
Copyright © <Author name> <year>. This is an open-access paper distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons license CC BY-NC 4.0, which allows non-commercial sharing and redistribution so long as the original author and publisher are credited.
Publication Copyright and Licensing
The following guidelines and information, provided in six sections, are intended for authors (the “Author”) who are invited to write a paper (the “Work”) for The School of Public Policy Publications (the “Publisher”). The rights and responsibilities conveyed in the SPP Author Agreement will only apply once your paper is accepted for publication. At that point in the publication process, you will be asked to download the form and return a signed copy via e-mail to spppublications@ucalgary.ca. Please review the below information to ensure agreement with SPPP policies.
Section 1: Author’s Grant of Rights
In consideration of the Publisher’s agreeing to publish the Work in The School of Public Policy Publications, the Author hereby grants to the Publisher the following:
1.1 The irrevocable, royalty-free right to publish, reproduce, publicly display, publicly perform and distribute the Work in perpetuity throughout the world in all means of expression by any method or media now known or hereafter developed, including electronic format;
1.2 The irrevocable, royalty-free right to use the Author’s name and likeness in association with the Work in published form and in advertising and promotional materials related to the Work; and
1.3 The irrevocable, royalty-free right to license others to do any or all of the above.
Section 2: Prior Publication & Publication by Others
2.1 The Author agrees not to publish the Work, or authorize any third party to publish the Work, either in print or electronically, prior to publication of the Work by the Publisher.
2.2 The Author agrees not to publish the Work in any publication outlet which is substantially similar to The School of Public Policy Publications for a period of six (6) months after publication of the Work in The School of Public Policy Publications. Substantially similar is defined as a non-subscription, open-access publication outlet with a similar mandate/vision and intended audience.
2.3 Should the Author publish or distribute the Work elsewhere at any time or in any alternate format, the Author agrees to contact The School of Public Policy Publications to inform them of the subsequent publication.
2.4 Should the Author publish or distribute the Work elsewhere at any time or in any alternate format, the Author agrees to make reasonable efforts to ensure that any such additional publication cites the publication in The School of Public Policy Publications by author, title, and publisher, through a tagline, author bibliography, or similar means. A sample acknowledgement would be:
“Reprinted with permission from the author. Originally published in the The School of Public Policy Publications, http://www.policyschool.ca/publications/.”
Section 3: Editing and Formatting
The Author authorizes the Publisher to edit the Work and to make such modifications as are technically necessary or desirable to exercise the rights in Section 1 in differing media and formats. The Publisher will make no material modification to the content of the Work without the Author’s consent.
Section 4: Author’s Ownership of Copyright and Reservation of Rights
4.1 Nothing in this agreement constitutes a transfer of the copyright by the Author, and the copyright in the Work is subject to the rights granted by this agreement.
4.2 The Author retains the following rights, including but not limited to, the right:
4.2.1 To reproduce and distribute the Work, and to authorize others to reproduce and distribute the Work, in any format;
4.2.2 To post a version of the Work in an institutional repository or the Author’s personal or departmental web page so long as The School of Public Policy Publications is cited as the source of first publication of the Work (see sample acknowledgement above).
4.2.3 To include the Work, in whole or in part, in another work, subject to Section 2 above and provided that The School of Public Policy Publications is cited as the source of first publication of the Work (see sample acknowledgement above).
4.3 The Editors and Editorial Board of The School of Public Policy Publications requires authors to publish the Work under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International licence (CC BY-NC 4.0). This license allows others to distribute, remix, tweak, and build upon the Work for noncommercial purposes, and ensures the Author is credited for the original creation. This onward licensing is subject to section 2.4 of this agreement, which further ensures that the original publisher is credited.
Section 5: Author’s Warranties and Undertakings
The Author warrants that:
5.1 The Author is the sole author of the Work, or if a joint author, the Author has identified within the Work the other authors, and holds the copyright, either solely or jointly, and has the power to convey the rights granted in this agreement.
5.2 The Work has not previously been published, in whole or in part, except as follows:
5.3 Any textual, graphic or multimedia material included in the Work that is the property or work of another is either explicitly identified by source and cited in the Work or is otherwise identified as follows:
5.4 To the best of the Author’s knowledge, the Work does not contain matter that is obscene, libelous, or defamatory; it does not violate another’s civil right, right of privacy, right of publicity, or other legal right; and it is otherwise not unlawful.
5.5 To the best of the Author’s knowledge, the Work does not infringe the copyright or other intellectual property or literary rights of another.
5.6 The Author will indemnify and hold Publisher harmless against loss, damages, expenses, awards, and judgments arising from breach of any such warranties.
Section 6: The Reuse of Third-Party Works
The Publisher requires that the Author determine, prior to publication, whether it is necessary to obtain permissions from any third party who holds rights with respect to any photographs, illustrations, drawings, text, or any other material (“third-party work”) to be published with or in connection with your Work. Copyright permission will not be necessary if the use is determined to be fair dealing, if the work is in the public domain, or if the rights-holder has granted a Creative Commons or other licence. If either the Author or Publisher determines for any reason that permission is required to include any thirdparty work, the Author will obtain written permission from the rightsholder.
