A Critical Examination of Enrolment Forecasts and Fiscal Projections in the Worth Report

Abstract

There are seven major chapters in A Choice of Futures: (1) Tomorrow: Future-Forecasts, (2) A Sense of Direction, (3) Structure, (4) Process, (5) Planning, (6) Resources, and (7) Next Steps. In the study of this Report, it is difficult to discover adequate relationships of the various parts to one another even as it is difficult to discover concrete research evidence for forecasts, estimates and projections. However, the forecasts on future expenditures are obviously meant to relate to the forecasts in earlier chapters dealing with aspects of the future and in particular, the population and enrolment forecasts. These forecasts were largely derived from a compilation of data synthesized earlier by Seastone. In the preface of his study, Seastone writes: "Thus, the study should be regarded as a compilation of available data and analyses, and extensions of these data where necessary, according to a set of assumptions and analyses that reflect my judgment about probable future patterns of behaviour"