For Canada, a transition from IEEPA to Section 232 tariffs will be a transition from National to Provincial Impacts
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.55016/52wan296Abstract
Canada has suffered economically and psychologically from the radical changes to U.S. trade policy under the Trump administrations.
This is poised to change, potentially significantly.
A pending U.S. Supreme Court (SCOTUS) ruling may end the President’s use of the International Emergency Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose what have become ‘any item, any amount, at any time and for any reason,’ tariffs on everything Canada exports to the U.S.
A ruling ending or limiting the use of IEEPA will bring immediate, widespread relief to Canadian governments and businesses from the always imminent threat of tariff by tweet. While bringing some relief, a favourable SCOTUS ruling will not end Canada’s tariff angst; it will reduce, change and refocus it.
Should SCOTUS strike down or curtail the President’s use of IEEPA tariffs, the President will look to other tariff authorities delegated to the President by Congress. Of these, Section 232, or ‘national security’ tariffs, would be expected to increase as the President seeks not to lose his tariff leverage over other countries.
There are major differences between IEEPA and Section 232 tariffs, with significant policy implications for Canada, including how to respond to a shift from national to provincial impacts and how to adapt to a greater capacity for proactive responses.
This paper provides the first in-depth examination of provincial impacts of Section 232 tariffs and resulting policy implications and mitigation options arising from the differences between IEEPA and Section 232 tariffs.
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