@article{Desy_Coderre_Veale_Busche_Woloschuk_McLaughlin_2021, title={Can we predict failure in licensure exams from medical students’ undergraduate academic performance?}, volume={12}, url={https://journalhosting.ucalgary.ca/index.php/cmej/article/view/68172}, DOI={10.36834/cmej.68172}, abstractNote={<p><strong>Background: </strong>In 2015, the Medical Council of Canada increased the minimum pass level for the Medical Council of Canada Qualifying Examination Part I, and students had a higher rate of failure than in previous years. The purpose of this study was to predict students at an increased odds of examination failure to allow for early, targeted interventions.  </p> <p><strong>Methods</strong>: We divided our dataset into a derivation cohort and two validation cohorts and used multiple logistic regression to predict licensing examination failure. We then performed receiver operating characteristics and a sensitivity analysis using different cutoffs for explanatory variables to identify the cutoff threshold with the best predictive value at identifying students at increased odds of failure.</p> <p><strong>Results:</strong> After multivariate analysis, only pre-clerkship GPA was a significant independent predictor of failure (OR 0.76, 95% CI [0.66, 0.88], <em>p</em> < 0.001). The probability of failure increased steeply when the pre-clerkship GPA fell below 80% and 76% was found to be the most efficient cutoff for predicting failure (OR 9.37, 95% CI [3.08, 38.41]).</p> <p><strong>Conclusions:</strong> Pre-clerkship performance can predict students at increased odds of licensing examination failure. Further studies are needed to explore whether early interventions for at-risk students alter their examination performance.</p>}, number={6}, journal={Canadian Medical Education Journal}, author={Desy, Janeve and Coderre, Sylvian and Veale, Pamela and Busche, Kevin and Woloschuk, Wayne and McLaughlin, Kevin}, year={2021}, month={Dec.}, pages={6–13} }